CSN: Why are Brady's interceptions on rise?

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November 11, 2011, 10:00 am

By Tom E. Curran
CSNNE.com Patriots Insider

When: Sunday, Nov. 13, 8:30 p.m., NBC
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Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
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Betting line: The Jets are favored by 1.
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Records: Both teams are 5-3 and are in three-way tie, with Buffalo, for first place in the AFC East.
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Last meeting: The Patriots never trailed in beating the Jets, 30-21, at Gillette Stadium in Week 5.
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Series: As even as can be: 52-52-1 in 105 meetings (including three playoff matchups, two of which have been won by New England) between these original AFL rivals. The Jets are 3-3 against the Pats since Rex Ryan became coach in 2009, and the Pats are 16-9 against the Jets since Bill Belichick became coach in 2000.
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Injuries: The Patriots are expected to be without starting linebacker Brandon Spikes, who injured his knee in last Sunday's loss to the Giants, and starting safety Patrick Chung -- one of the only bright spots in what has been a horrible New England secondary -- has a foot injury that's kept him out of practice. The Jets are concerned about running back Joe McKnight (toe) and safety Brodney Pool (knee); Ryan hasn't ruled them out, but he also sounds less than certain about their availability.
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Five things to watch:

1) Is ground and pound an approach that's sound? In the Jets' first four games, lead back Shonn Greene ran the ball 51 times. In the four games since, he's carried it 80 times. The Jets are 3-1. But that one loss? It came against the Patriots, a team that is the not-so-proud owner of the league's worst pass defense (316 yards per game allowed through the air). So while the Jets are wedded to their smashmouth identity, easier pickins for points will likely come if they simply throw on New England.

2) Banged up backers for the Patriots. Last week, the Patriots ran their base 4-3 defense most of the game against the Giants as opposed to the 4-2 set with five defensive backs they'd been running. But by the end of the loss to the Giants, middle linebacker Brandon Spikes had a sprained MCL. His running mate, All-Pro Jerod Mayo, is still working back from his own MCL injury. Meanwhile, safety Patrick Chung injured his foot and missed practice time and fellow safety Josh Barrett landed on IR with a calf injury. So if it's not bad enough for the Patriots to come in 32nd in total yards allowed per game (416), they're pretty beat up as well.

3) Home is where wins are for Jets. Rex Ryan hasn't lost to the Patriots at home. In 2009, Gang Green whacked New England around in the second game of the season. Last year, same thing in Week 2 as the Patriots continued a run of second-half road collapses and Randy Moss dogged his way out of New England for good. This week, Rex Ryan called on Jets fans to make it "miserable" for the Patriots offense and chances are they'll oblige.

4) Pats are slumping but Jets can't afford a loss. Check the landscape right now in the AFC East. Three-way tie at 5-3 between the Patriots, Jets and Bills. The Patriots lost to the Bills but have already beaten the Jets. The Jets have beaten the Bills but, right . . . they lost to the Patriots. If the Jets don't get a split against New England, the season-ending tie - and the chance of there being one is huge - goes to the Patriots. So New York would have to win the division outright over the Patriots and the Patriots have finished in at least a tie for first every season since 2001 (they got bounced from the playoffs on tiebreakers in 2002 and 2008).

5) Putting the clamps on Welker. The Jets aren't going to let Wes Welker take over the game. In the first meeting, Welker had 5 catches for 124 yards, but 73 of those yards came on one play. Yes, that play counts, but the point is: New York makes Welker priority No. 1, and banging him around at the line is the way they try to squelch him. The Jets will run everyone at Welker - Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, Kyle Wilson. Someone else has to emerge for the Patriots. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has been the most frequent complement but he's finding less room to roam. Chad Ochocinco has been a non-factor. Deion Branch hasn't been getting separation quickly enough. If not Welker, then who?

Prediction: Jets 24, Patriots 16
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Follow Tom Curran on Twitter at @tomecurran

Source: http://www.csnne.com/11/10/11/Why-are-Bradys-interceptions-on-the-rise/nbc_snf_csnne.html?blockID=591084&feedID=10588

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